Still in the hunt!

Adams came through and came through big. If I win this week I could end up in second place going into the playoffs. I'll also need some key losses too as I'm pretty low in the points standing. No waiver pickups in this league this week as I'm pretty happy with my lineup, except of course for my coin-flip receiver corps. Gurley stays on the bench.

Fingers Crossed for Davante Adams

With a promising start to the weekend, it's now a coin-flip to win this week after Carolina's near-comeback last night. My opponent played Jonathan Stewart, whose excellent second half helped make up for weak showings from most of his other starters.

Of course I didn't do myself any favors by leaving Brandon Marshall and Kenny Britt on the bench in favor of Jarvis Landry and Steve Smith. Landry was a last minute decision, as I was leaning toward Kenny Britt. My instinct that Tannehill would pass like crazy against the 49ers was a good one, but he didn't give Landry one of those TDs that he dished out. Smith had been playing well and I thought he'd continue to do so against Cincinnati.

If I'd started one of those two over Smith or Landry, I'd have the win locked up going into tonight. As it stands, I'm down by six points with Davante Adams left to play tonight. He's been on a run lately and hopefully he can find the end zone.

Some of my decisions did pan out though. Kirk Cousins game through big against Dallas and leaving Gurley on the bench in favor of Carlos Hyde also proved correct, even if a late Doug Martin fumble prevented him from matching Gurley's score. I think Gurley stays on the bench next week against New England. Justin Tucker's monster game also helped buoy the team.

So here's to Davante Adams hopefully seeing the end zone and and the Packers pulling it out over the Eagles. I'll be watching tonight.

Well, there goes my season (probably)....

Much like sex and karaoke, sometimes it's best not to overthink fantasy football. That's what I did this week and it looks like it just might've knocked me out of playoff contention. With neither my opponent nor I with any players in tonight's game, I lost this week by 27 points.

Now, my decision to start Stafford over Cousins only accounted for 22 of those points, so it's entirely possible I would've lost anyway, but in picking upside (Stafford) over floor (Cousins), clearly was a mistake. I knew Cousins would have a solid game against Green Bay, but I also thought that Washington could get ahead early and rest on the run or that a challenged Green Bay defense might rally and put up a decent game. Stafford, I reasoned, might not put up explosive yardage numbers but with so many medium-range passing threats he'd easily put a few in the end zone. Nope.

Oh well.

I suppose the writing was on the wall anyway as injuries and bye weeks hampered my Week 11 options. This week's pickup, WR Robert Woods had a promising first quarter with 40+ yards only to get knocked out with sprained knee. The only WR on the bench, Jarvis Landry, put up a mediocre day but still would've netted me 4 more points than either Britt or Woods. Of course, I still would've lost even with Cousins and Landry.

I need to make some moves and win out. On the plus side, Carlos Hyde is showing like he has a decent floor, Steve Smith is still solid and TODD GURLEY SCORED A TOUCHDOWN. I've got Melvin Gordon and Brandon Marshall back next week.

No need to make a waiver move this week, but I'll probably cut Woods anyway since it's doubtful he'll be back next week.

Mark Ingram!

He held onto the ball but got knocked out of the game early, which was too bad because he was on track for a 10+ point game. Nevertheless, his 6 points against my opponent's equally underperforming RB Jonathan Stewart means I'm still competitive going into Sunday.

I hope Ingram's injury isn't too serious, both for him (obviously) and because without Ingram I'm down to Ryan Mathews and Dion Lewis as my current RB2 options. Oh, and have I mentioned that my RB1 is Todd Gurley?

Week 11 Preview

Thursday
Another tough bye week, but thankfully the last one. Most notably I've got Melvin Gordon, my top scorer, out. Brandon Marshall is out too and, although he hasn't been the most productive WR in recent weeks, I'm so thin at the position that I could use any help I can get.

The Line-Up
In line with my new approach, I'm starting Matthew Stafford at QB over Kirk Cousins. I think that Stafford has a much higher upside against the Jaguars and he has a good array of mid-yardage receiving targets which should keep the passing game somewhat active even if the Lions take an early lead. I think that Cousins has the better floor, but Green Bay could rally and present a better defense then they have in recent weeks.

At running back, alas, I still have to play Todd Gurley. Alongside Gurley, I'm starting Doug Martin and hoping for the best in his second week back from injury.

My receivers this week are Jarvis Landry, Kenny Britt, and Steve Smith, Sr. Landry has a shot at a decent week if he and Tannehill start connecting early, but I'm not optimistic. On the flip-side of Dolphins-Rams match-up I've got Kenny Britt, which is my biggest wild card. I'm hoping Jared Goff is still able to ride Britt's hot hand through this week. I have no expectations for Smith, just a hope that he can get 5-10 points for me.

Speaking of hot hands, I've decided to start TE Cameron Brate over the perhaps more reliable Kyle Rudolph. Brate has been tearing it up and I can see him continuing to do so against Kansas City.

RB Carlos Hyde, who was my regular flex before he was injured, is back in that position. Here's hoping he finds the end zone again.

Despite a lackluster performance last week, I decided to hold on to the Patriots D/ST, who have a very good matchup against the 49ers. Justin Tucker will keep kicking.

I'm not too worried about this lineup as I'm literally starting the best lineup I possibly can with my bye week issues. The only significant coin flip is Stafford over Cousins. If I was in a position to play more conservatively I also might consider keeping Martin on the bench to see how his recovery goes, slot Hyde into the RB2 slot, and then flex Kyle Rudolph, but I need upside this week and if Gurley, Martin, or Hyde can find the end zone a couple times, I'll be on my way.

The Waiver Wire
No notable pickups this week for Spearmint Wino. I'm going to keep an eye on last week's pickup, Dion Lewis, to see how the Patriots use him. In my other league (which I'll be de-emphasizing on this site moving forward), I did decide to pick-up Sebastian Janikowski as my kicker but keep the very consistent Brandon McManus through his bye week. I have more bench spots in that league.

Tonight's Game
I've got Mark Ingram going in my other league. Hopefully he hangs on to the ball.

Winners & Losers

So far, this season has been a disappointment. Most disappointing of all is that I used my first round pick in both leagues on one Mr. Todd Gurley. Last season's scoring machine has been a middling back at best and because (as I've mentioned) my league's stingy scoring format, I haven't even benefited from his increased use in the passing game.

I've also had struggles from Brandon Marshall and Jarvis Landry, my two top receivers, which isn't saying much, I know. After strong starts, they've both struggled with quarterback inconsistency and, in Marshall's case, the loss of Eric Decker--leaving him as the Jets' only deep threat. Landry has seen his role reduced with the emerging dominance of Jay Ajayi. The only real shining star from my draft class was Melvin Gordon who is Spearmint Wino's scoring leader and is my only non-QB who has scored 10+ points in almost every game (he only scored 9 against Denver in Week 6).

On the plus side, I've got Carlos Hyde back from injury. Hyde scored in 4 of his first 5 games before going down to injury. I'm starting him this week against New England. If he can pull off a decent performance in this tough match-up, he should be solidly back as my RB2/flex and I can entertain the idea of benching Gurley.

Also on the cautiously optimistic side are four recent waiver wire pickups. Steve Smith, Sr. has so far been a high floor WR3 with scoring potential, RB Doug Martin scored a TD in his first game back from injury, and Kenny Britt has been killer 3 of his last 4 games. I also picked up Dion Lewis, who should be back this week and I'm thinking could get quite a bit of end zone work, but we'll see.

(Of course my whole season could fall apart if new Rams QB Jared Goff doesn't click with Britt the way Case Keenum did.)

Traditional Scoring Blues....

Last season I was in a PPR league that also had some crazy bonuses. For instance, I had Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. If Roethlisberger completed a 50 yard TD pass to Antonio Brown, Brown would get me 14 points on that one play alone. Roethlisberger was good for 10. It was fun, but it was also insane.

This year, both my leagues are traditional format with traditional scoring and no bonuses. Since this was my first time in a non-PPR format, I did a little research and it seemed like power running backs should be the bread and butter of this league. As a result, I drafted RB heavy, didn't worry too much about my QB, and grabbed mid-range receivers with the idea that I'd be able to pick up an emergent WR later in this season on waivers.

This strategy proved wrong.

Most notably, running backs who don't see the end zone aren't worth much, especially in the absence of any bonus points for big plays, yardage thresholds, or receptions. Just churning out 80-100 yards per game gets me as many points as a TE who goes for 30 yards and a TD.

Much like saying that the key to doing well as a pinball game is to "get the multiball," it is obvious to say that the key to success in fantasy football is touchdowns. But as leagues have expanded their rules expressly to make players other than QBs and RBs the scoring drivers with PPR formats and scoring bonuses, it has served to reduce the importance of TDs. Tight Ends, slot receivers, and dual-threat running backs can score a lot of points without reaching the end zone, while goal-line backs and deep threat receivers are less valuable. In this very basic league, it is all about the end zone. Those guys who only turn up in the red zone or those starting RBs who also get goal-line work are very valuable.

In attempt to salvage my season--I'm in a 5-way tie for "first" in my main league and in next to last place in my other league--I've decided to change up my strategy. I'm going to largely ignore starting players based on a reliable floor and instead focus on players who have scoring upside. For instance, I'm going to play both Cameron Brate and Zach Miller in my other league in the hopes that both should get multiple end zone looks. Next week, once Melvin Gordon comes off his bye, I might very well bench Todd Gurley.

We'll see what happens.

This blog is still taking shape, but...

...here we go!

I had a split weekend between my two leagues. I'm playing in two leagues, both of which are traditional scoring format with very few bonuses, so scores tend to be low and fantasy value really comes down solely to either monster yardage games or touchdowns.

My "main league" has ten starters with only five bench spots, so streaming kickers and defenses is a must and rosters have been challenging during these bye-heavy weeks. My "other league" has nine starters and seven bench spots, so the flexibility is there but waiver-wire talent is much weaker. I'm doing better in my main league than in my other league.

Spearmint Wino (main league)
Anchored by a solid QB performance from Kirk Cousins, the continued RB consistency of Melvin Gordon, and my waiver pickup of the season, WR Kenny Britt, I managed a 12 point win. Timely TDs from Steve Smith, Sr., Kyle Rudolph, and Doug Martin also helped me make up for very disappointing days from Brandon Marshall, J.J. Nelson, and the Patriots D/ST. Justin Tucker was worth a solid 9 points from Kicker as well.

(I was particularly pleased with Martin's TD as I took a risk and started him over Todd Gurley who I finally had to bench.)

I'm excited about Britt and I like Smith's floor, but overall the WR position has been killing me this season. Marshall can't catch a break with the current QB situation with the Jets and Jarvis Landry is in an offense with too many targets and a dominant run game.

WHAT I SHOULD'VE DONE: Started Jarvis Landry over J.J. Nelson at WR and started Gurley over Marshall in my FLEX spot. This would've netted me 10 more points.

WHO'S CUT: RB Kapri Bibbs is going back on waivers now that Martin and Carlos Hyde are back in the mix and J.J. Nelson is done too. If my bench was deeper I'd keep Nelson for another week just to see if he can bounce back but in another bye-heavy week there just isn't room.


Traumatic Wine Injury (other league)
This week was a major disappointment and has convinced me that I need to go with my own analysis and gut. Too much "advice" can be a bad thing, as evidenced by my 14 point loss which I can trace directly to two last minute lineup changes.

WR Stefon Diggs and K Brandon McManus were my only bright spots and the only players besides QB Philip Rivers who cracked double digits. RBs Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram were mediocre, WR J.J. Nelson had a goose egg, TE Zach Miller was barely there, and WR Jarvis Landry was nothing special in my FLEX. The Jets were fine in the D/ST position but nothing worth me keeping them next week.

Now, here's where I really fucked up....

WHAT I SHOULD'VE DONE: I left QB Marcus Mariota and TE Cameron Brate on the bench. I opted for reliability and high floor over explosiveness. Mariota alone would have brought me within four points. Add Brate over Miller and WR Jamison Crowder over J.J. Nelson and I would be looking at a 16 point win. I never considered Crowder, but Mariota and Brate were both in my lineup earlier in the week before I made final game day tweaks.

WHO'S CUT: I'm dropping the Jets D/ST for a better streaming option going into their bye week. Perhaps against my better judgment, McManus is also getting cut because of his bye week. I've got WR Amari Cooper back next week so Nelson is also gone and I'm dropping RB Chris Thompson in hopes of picking up better RB bench depth for the stretch run.